Predicting the Toronto Real Estate Market

If I had to pick the most asked question I get, it would have to be: “how is the Real Estate market, and is it a good time to by?” Shortly after that comes the “well I heard in the news that _______” or “My friend knows a guy that’s well connected on Bay St, and he said _______”.  I’m sure by now you get the point, or maybe even caught yourself asking/saying the very same…not that there’s anything wrong with that!

I’m going to let you in on a little secret of the Real Estate world and whether other Realtors want to admit it or not, the truth is NO ONE KNOWS WHERE THE MARKET IS GOING! (well at least not as far down the road as some of these predicitons have been given) Sure, there’s market “indicators” that can give us a general sense of the market but truthfully you shouldn’t waste your time listening to any forecasts further than 3 months!

I for one completely tune out all “reports” on a national level. Real estate is local, and in my market each and every condo building can produce a different result.  So if the price of potatoes in P.E.I. goes down resulting in less condo sales out east, it really doesn’t effect the market in Toronto.  And vice versa, if sales are red hot here, it doesn’t mean the rest of the country is following suit. Soooo if you’re going to open a ear to any predictions, at least let it be a local one!

In the not so distant past (think the “psychological” recession of 2008-2009) a predominant real estate association changed their yearly outlook over 3 times!!! And i’m not talking about a minor shift in numbers, I’m talking about a completely different tune all together! Why? BECAUSE THINGS CHANGE EVERY QUARTER.  Year long predictions…keep’em! I like looking at the market 3 months at a time! More than that and it’s just a headline to sell ad-space!

The allure of a bubble brewing is something that fascinates everyone…I assume it stems from the frustrations in affordability and the hopes of getting a bargin. Everyone’s looking for deals, and I’m no different!  Sure, I’d like to buy several properties at 2001 prices…only problem is, I have no idea when or if that will ever happen.

Now make no mistake: PRICES WILL FALL, it’s inevitable…but to qualify the cap locks you’ve got to ask yourself “from what level will prices fall”.  And by that I mean, will the average price of a house go up another $100,000 before it comes down $20,000??? Once again, no one has those answers, but when you think of it like that it puts more into perspective!

So the question remains…”When is the best time to buy Real Estate”… My answer: “when you can afford to carry it”.  This is in no way a smart ass answer, but rather one I truly believe in.  If you’re in a secure job that you can see your self with for the foreseeable future and you can carry the costs associated with property you’re interested in, DO IT!  The most common thing holding people back is fear!  Fear of the unknown, fear of the bubble popping, fear of losing!  So long as you can budget to carry your property, you’ll be fine.

The fine folks at BuzzBuzzHome put together a very interesting comparison of the predictions made about the “bubble bursting”. The info-graph below categorizes the different views on the subject form the last quarter of 2009 to present day from some very predominant people… I’ve sold to a large number of clients during that time that probably spent more time focusing on the comments to the right of the chart and as a result have done quite well for themselves.

News Headline

So remember, if prices do drop, don’t panic!  Hang on and wait for things to improve, because after all it’s only a loss if you sell it at one! If you’re ready to find a place for your self, contact me…I’d love to help!

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  • David says:

    By visa versa..you mean..vice versa? :)

  • Sage Logo PNG copy Mark Savel - Sales Representative - Sage Real Estate LTD., Brokerage - 1820 Bayview Ave. Tor, Ont, M4G 4G7 - 416-483-8000

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